Mike Cernovich posits that, contrary to the official reports, there must have been more than one shooter in Orlando.
Even at closed quarters, it takes several rounds to kill a person. People are terrible shots. People who are full of adrenaline and have been running are also terrible shots. Witness interviews also indicate that Mateen shot into the ceiling.
How many rounds of ammo did Mateen have, and would that number be enough to take out over 100 people?
Assuming the shooter had tactical training, he’d be carrying a load bearing vest with 8 fully loaded 30 round magazines, for a total of 9 magazines (one on his weapon). That’s 270 rounds.
Mateen would also have a fully-loaded pistol with an unknown number of magazines. Let’s assume he was using a 9mm handgun, which holds a 15 round magazine, and that he was carrying 4 additional magazines. That’s 75 rounds of 9mm ammo.
In total, Mateen would have had 345 rounds of ammunition.
If you think 345 rounds of ammo is a lot, talk to some soldiers. People are hard to kill.
Also watch this video. You can hear 30 rounds go off in a matter of seconds. Yet somehow the shooter was killing people for 3 hours?
There’s more – much more – at the link, including eyewitness reports about multiple shooters. While I’m personally not ready to call it “case closed,” he does make a pretty good case. However, a few caveats:
First, how many people were actually in the club? I haven’t seen this detailed anywhere. If the club was at capacity – or worse, overcrowded (because nightclub managers never do that…) then this really could have been a case where the pickings were just that easy. However… even there, I would expect the injured list to be quite a bit larger to support a death list that long. Most people really aren’t that good of a shot.
Second, and more importantly, the killer had approximately two hours before the police intervened. That’s lots of time to get the job done. If he had some way of getting extra ammunition inside, then this could have been done.
Even with these objections, Mr. Cernovich makes a strong case. But I have an alternate hypothesis.
What if some of those deaths are the result of the police storming the place at the end?
- Contrary to popular myth, the average police officer is not a very good shot.
- Hostage rescue is hard. Ridiculously crazy hard. Standard rule of thumb in the business is to expect to lose 10-20% of the hostages – and that’s when you have full element of surprise and an elite team. Orlando police certainly didn’t have the former. And while I make no judgement about the quality of their team relative to other police departments, it’s unlikely that they were at, say, Navy SEAL levels.
- When you have a squad of 6-10 SWAT officers opening fire, a good portion of that 50 person death toll can happen very quickly.
And all of that is if everything goes right with the hostage rescue.
Were there multiple shooters? Or are some of the victims dead due to police fire? Keep in mind that these answers are not mutually exclusive, and it’s very possible that both hypotheses are true. Or neither. This event is less than 36 hours old, which means we’re still in the fog of war stage. The only thing I can guarantee at this point is that the media reports are inaccurate.
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