Donald Trump’s quest for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is essentially over.
We are now at 1001 delegates. We will win on the first ballot and are not wasting time and effort on other ballots because system is rigged!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 29, 2016
There is no longer any path for the #NeverTrump movement to prevent him from gaining 1237 delegates. He now needs only 236 more. By FiveThirtyEight.com‘s targets, he’s at 101% of where he needs to be right now (they have not yet updated to reflect this, or even to reflect the 996 delegates that Google shows him with). He only needs 41% of the remaining delegates to win.
Assuming the win in New Jersey – and he’s all but certain to do nearly as well there as he did in New York – that means he only needs 186 delegates from other sources. There are 96 delegates remaining in proportional states (Oregon, Washington and New Mexico). Assuming that Trump doesn’t have a total collapse, we can expect him to take at least 20-30 of those delegates. At that point, a strong showing in California – or a moderate showing plus a victory in any other remaining state – carries him to victory even without Indiana.
If when Trump wins Indiana next week, he’ll coast through the rest of the primary with ease.
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