Cruz Eliminated

sadtedAs I predicted nearly a month ago, Ted Cruz is now mathematically eliminated form the first round ballot for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination. According to Google this morning, Cruz has 562 delegates with 616 still available. That means Cruz has to win 110% of the remaining delegates in order to secure a victory.

The situation is even bleaker than that for Cruz, however. Google shows Trump with 954 delegates. In reality, his total is almost certainly closer to 1000, perhaps over it. His stomp through Pennsylvania last night means that he won a significant number of delegates who were actually “soft pledged” to him. What’s more, a majority of the remaining Pennsylvania delegates pledged to vote for the statewide winner or the winner of their congressional district (Trump won all districts in all five states last night).

Still to come: New Jersey’s 51 winner-take-all delegates are basically a lock for Trump, West Virginia’s 34 direct elected delegates look good for Trump, and there are 96 proportionally allocated delegates still to come. We can expect Trump to get at least a third of the proportionally allocated delegates, so that gives us around 115 more delegates for Trump, which puts him at 1115. California alone can pretty much push him over the edge at that point.

This race is pretty much over. If Trump wins Indiana’s 57 delegates next week, it’s done. There will basically be no path left for the NeverTrump crowd to stop him.

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